20 août 2008

5 arguments contre une guerre inutile

Profitons de l'émotion soulevée par la mort de 10 jeunes soldats en Afghanistan pour, loin des admonestations habituelles de nos politiciens incompétents, réfléchir à notre engagement dans le pays.
Est-ce que la guerre là-bas fait encore du sens, alors même qu'elle était sensée lutter contre le terrorisme ? 5 raisons pour en douter (inspirées de la revue allemande Cicero d'avril 2008).

1) l'argument temporel
La guerre dure déjà 7 ans, plus que les 1e et 2e guerres mondiales. Une guerre non gagnée à cette date est perdue. La "Quick reaction force" dont faisaient partie nos soldats n'est qu'un enlisement supplémentaire. A 7 maigres années vont succéder 7 années plus maigres encore.

2) l'argument militaire
2 logiques ont concouru à l'intervention : la destruction des camps terroristes et la solidarité dans l'alliance Atlantique.
La première logique a - au mieux - échoué à la frontière pakistanaise. Il y a toujours autant de terroristes, Bin Laden court toujours, de plus les combattants déstabilisent la région et le Pakistan, ce qui est plus dangereux qu'un régime taliban à Kaboul. En résumé : l'objectif militaire (démantèlement des talibans, construction d'un Etat démocratique, stabilisation de la région) n'est pas atteint et ne le sera pas avant des années.
La logique de l'Alliance est de plus en plus douteuse. L'acceptation populaire décroit avec les pertes (on le voit en Allemagne) et l'Alliance pert de sa cohésion. Les gesticulations sarkozystes n'effacent pas le mauvais arrière-goût d'une guerre qui ressemble à une "Busherie" de plus, avec une mauvaise stratégie. Il y a une erreur importante en France de laisser croire à la population qu'on ne peut pas sortir de ce bourbier.

3) l'argument économique
La guerre est chère, très chère. Le Pentagone la chiffre à 80 Mrds de dollars, la CIA à 150 Mrds, les mouvements pacifistes à 300 Mrds. La part revenant à la France croit sans arrêt. Son coût est supérieur aux engagements dans le Golfe ou en Yougoslavie.
Est-ce que ce fut rentable, de laisser se dégrader la sécurité sur place ? de laisser la guerre s'éterniser ? de montrer une image impérialiste ? de déstabiliser la région et le Pakistan ? de voir la quantité de drogue produite en Afghanistan augmentée (104.000 hectares de pavot !!!) ? Sur le plan économique, cette guerre est pour l'Occident un investissement "subprime" catastrophique.

4) l'argument historique
Peu importe la guerre (de conquête, de civilisation ou alors de démocratisation comme celle-ci), toutes ont échoué dans la région. La construction d'un protectorat en Afghanistan est aussi impossible qu'inutile. Des pages entières d'histoire en témoignent. N'ayons pas la présomption de nous croire supérieurs à nos glorieux prédécesseurs.

5) l'argument moral
La mort d'enfants du pays, les pleurs de leurs parents, tout ceci n'est traité (voir Poniatowski ce matin sur RMC) que comme "moment d'émotion". Au nom de quoi devrait-on ridiculiser les victimes de la guerre ? On a pris l'habitude de parler de guerre sur le plan stratégique. Mais il ne faut jamais oublier le corollaire de la guerre : chacun doit se demander s'il est capable d'expliquer à l'enfant d'un soldat mort que cela fut rentable. "Votre fils est mort en héros", mais au nom de quoi ? Les héros d'aujourd'hui ne sont plus militaires, parachutistes, tankistes. Ils sont sportifs, acteurs ou chanteurs. Malheureusement.
Plus de 800 morts alliés depuis le début. Une abstraction ? Une prix nécessaire ? Peu ? non, trop. Définitivement trop.

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